Now that I’m paying attention, that is. And it’s not really a sighting. Just a quarantine in a small village in Romania, in case one of the 30 villagers break out with the Avian Flu. No humans are sick, but three dead ducks tested positive.
Direct transmission from the birds to humans has not been demonstrated, but when a virus is transmitted from wild birds to domesticated birds such as chickens, it undergoes changes that allow it to infect humans, pigs, and potentially other mammals. Once in the lung cells of a mammalian host, the virus can “reassort,” or mix genes, with human influenza viruses that are also present. This process can lead to an entirely new viral strain, capable of sustained human-to-human transmission. If such a virus has not circulated in humans before, the entire population will be susceptible. If the virus has not circulated in the human population for a number of years, most people will lack residual immunity from previous infection.
“Preparing for the Next Pandemic,” Michael T. Osterholm, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2005
This article makes a number of important points:
- Putting aside what might be an enormous human death toll, the biggest victims of the real Captain Tripps will be our world’s economies. (I don’t remember that part in The Stand, but then, I skimmed through some of the slower parts.)
- The world market won’t be the only economic victim. The local costs of treating the ill, minimizing the spread of the disease, disposing of the dead, etc. will be astronomical.
- In the absence of a vaccine, anti-viral medications (like Tamiflu) may provide a defense against the flu.
- Skilled health professionals will be in great demand (so go back to medical/nursing school!)
- There’s an excellent chance this Avian Flu is NOT the next Captain Tripps. Rest assured, however, that our Captain Tripps is coming, if not this year, then eventually. World leaders need to plan ahead now.
UPDATE:
Captain Tripps isn’t in Romania after all…
“All the virological tests carried out to date in Romania have failed to identify the presence of the avian influenza virus. Every day that passes … reassures us that avian influenza is not in fact present in Romania,” said spokesman Philip Tod.
“Romania bird flu tests ‘negative,’ The European Union has said it has so far found no evidence of the presence of bird flu in Romania,” BBC News, Oct. 12, 2005.